Capital Market Outlook

Potential Tailwinds Gather

We believe an expected boom in U.S. foreign investment support, potential for several years of productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence and a relatively strong backdrop of economic signals point to continuing potential upside for U.S. markets.

 

November 3, 2025

Manufacturing, Metals and the Deficit

Policy initiatives and technological progress could buoy prospects for domestic manufacturing, while geopolitical tensions and sovereign debt could reinforce the promise of strategic minerals and metals. But what about the budget deficit?

 

October 27, 2025

What Could Spook This Market?

Fundamentals appear poised to boost manufacturing activity and economic growth, but concerns about the dollar, elevated trade tension, a government shutdown and the durability of Artificial Intelligence spending could weigh on investors' minds.

 

October 20, 2025

Earnings, China and the Long-running Bull

There's a lot in the forecast for investors to digest. As the bull market continues to advance, China is developing its next five-year plan and Q3 earnings season is about to get underway.

 

October 14, 2025

What to Make of Rate Cuts and a Shutdown

Rates are lower, but economic growth seems poised to stay. The government shut down, but U.S. consumers and corporations remain open for business. Here's where we think it all nets out.

 

October 6, 2025

Finding the Signals in the Noise

Amid the noise of geopolitical uncertainty and shifting monetary policy, we see potential benefit in strategic sectors and reason for optimism in the continued strength of U.S. consumer spending.

 

September 29, 2025

The Fallout from Falling Rates

Cutting rates with inflation still above target suggests the Federal Reserve may be emphasizing the employment side of its mandate at the moment. Meanwhile, we believe small-caps and the aerospace and defense sectors appear poised for continued strength.

 

September 22, 2025

Taking the Long View

We believe strong economic fundamentals and potential tailwinds for artificial intelligence could create both short-term and long-term benefits for investors.

 

September 15, 2025

A Different Lens for a Dynamic Environment

With structural changes and a variety of factors affecting the economy and trade, we're taking a fresh look at historical valuation metrics and economic relationships between the U.S. and its Asian trading partners.

 

September 8, 2025

Taking Stock of Market Dynamics

Against a backdrop of strong fundamentals and a positive earnings outlook, automation could help relieve tight labor supply in some industries. Meanwhile, China's trade dominance could pose issues for other Emerging Markets.

 

September 2, 2025

Keeping the Fundamentals in Sight

We continue to be optimistic about market fundamentals amid signs that U.S. markets remain well-positioned compared to much of the world and continued solidity in municipal credit markets.

 

August 25, 2025

Navigating Shifting Currents

Staying on course means understanding what's changing — and what's not — amid the rise of artificial intelligence, shifts in global trade and mounting pressure to cut interest rates.

 

August 18, 2025

Investment, insurance and annuity products:

Are Not FDIC Insured Are Not Bank Guaranteed May Lose Value
Are Not Deposits Are Not Insured by Any Federal Government Agency Are Not a Condition to Any Banking Service or Activity

Investing involves risk. There is always the potential of losing money when you invest in securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Asset allocation, diversification and rebalancing do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

Merrill, its affiliates, and financial advisors do not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. You should consult your legal and/or tax advisors before making any financial decisions.

This material is not intended as a recommendation, offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or investment strategy. Merrill offers a broad range of brokerage, investment advisory and other services. Additional information is available in our Client Relationship Summary.

This material does not take into account a client’s particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation, offer, or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or investment strategy. Merrill offers a broad range of brokerage, investment advisory and other services. There are important differences between brokerage and investment advisory services, including the type of advice and assistance provided, the fees charged, and the rights and obligations of the parties. It is important to understand the differences, particularly when determining which service or services to select. For more information about these services and their differences, speak with your Merrill financial advisor.

Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (also referred to as “MLPF&S” or “Merrill”) makes available certain investment products sponsored, managed, distributed or provided by companies that are affiliates of Bank of America Corporation (“BofA Corp.”). MLPF&S is a registered broker-dealer, registered investment adviser, Member SIPC and a wholly owned subsidiary of BofA Corp.

Merrill Private Wealth Management is a division of MLPF&S that offers a broad array of personalized wealth management products and services. Both brokerage and investment advisory services are offered by the Private Wealth Advisors through MLPF&S. The nature and degree of advice and assistance provided, the fees charged, and client rights and Merrill’s obligations will differ among these services. Investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal investment.

The banking, credit and trust services sold by the Private Wealth Advisors are offered by licensed banks and trust companies, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC, and other affiliated banks.

Trust, fiduciary and investment management services, including assets managed by the Specialty Asset Management team, are provided by Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC and wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation (“BofA Corp.”), and its agents.

Bank of America Private Bank is a division of Bank of America, N.A.

U.S. Trust Company of Delaware is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation.

Insurance and annuity products are offered through Merrill Lynch Life Agency Inc., a licensed insurance agency and wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation.

8573571-EXP-2027-05-04